The original forecast predicted 14-23 named tropical storms during this hurricane season. Those numbers have been revised to a range of 14-20. The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1st, and runs through November 30th, but the peak period is in high summer and early fall: August through October, during which eight to twelve storms could develop into hurricanes, four-to-six of which could evolve into “major storms” with winds in excess of 111 mph.

Jane Lubchenco said in a statement to the press, “August heralds the start of the most active phase of the Atlantic hurricane season and with the meteorological factors in place, now is the time for everyone living in hurricane prone areas to be prepared.”

Historically during active storm seasons, multiple hurricane strikes are much more likely for both the Gulf Coast and the East Coast in the U.S., but the Caribbean also sees a marked increase in the number and severity of storms during active seasons. This could mean bad news for Haiti, where there are roughly 1.6 million people still living under tarps and in tents, seven months after a disastrous earthquake crumbled its capital.

So far this season, three named storms have developed. Hurricane Alex made landfall in northern Mexico on June 30th, and tropical storm Bonnie caused some trouble for oil company crews working in the Gulf of Mexico in July. Last Thursday, tropical storm Colin regenerated, with winds of 45 mph over the open Atlantic, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami, FL. A tropical storm warning was issued for Bermuda.

According to Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center in Washington, the May outlook, which called for eight to 14 hurricanes, with possibly three to seven major hurricanes, reflected a more active early summer than we actually had. Bell also said that the update is based on indications that a high-activity era which began in 1995 is continuing.

“The atmospheric and oceanic conditions now in place are very conducive to hurricane formation, as we had predicted in May,” he said.

A Pacific Ocean phenomenon called La Nina developed in July, reducing wind shear in the Atlantic and making it easier for storms to take shape. As well, ocean temperatures are exceptionally high, and the warmest since 2005 when Hurricanes Katrina and Rita tore apart the very part of the Gulf of Mexico now dealing with BP’s oil spill. According to Bell, during above-normal seasons it’s typical for three named storms to spin into the Gulf between August and November. A storm’s individual strength and its path across the water would determine whether there would be any impact on remaining oil from the explosion last April.

Tropical storms are named when sustained wind speeds reach 39 mph (62 kph). They become hurricanes when sustained winds reach 74 mph (119 kph). Major hurricanes blow at 111 mph (178 kph) or more. The strongest hurricanes are labeled Category 5, with winds greater than 155 mph (250 kph).

Last week, researchers from Colorado State University researchers said they also expected this year’s season to be more active than average, forecasting 10 hurricanes, five of them major.

Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.

Reuter’s information comes directly from the CPC – the federal government’s Climate Prediction Center – which is part of the United States National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Their recent monthly update reported that the hallmark warm Pacific waters are slowly cooling, and that such an easing will result in “…neutral conditions” in June or July. However, the CPC also said that there are, “…everal models (which) suggest the potential of continued weak El Nino conditions through 2010, while others predict the development of La Nina conditions later in the year.”

Typically, El Nino results in chaotic global weather patterns, most notably in the Asia-Pacific region. It was first noticed by Latin American anchovy fisherman in the 19th century, who nicknamed it “Little Boy,” a reference to the Christ child, because it traditionally arrives around Christmas time. The opposite anomaly, La Nina, leads to cooler waters in the Pacific Ocean, and is often said to spark storm formation during the annual Atlantic hurricane season.

The 2009-2010 El Nino has been moderate to strong, says the CPC, with sea surface temperatures remaining warm through February, but is is also linked to the severe winter storms which have hammered the eastern United States. It was also blamed for a weak monsoon which caused severe damage to the Indian cane crop, forcing the price of sugar to a 29-year high. In addition, El Nino is believed to be connected to a severe dry spell which has hit the countries of Indonesia and the Philippines, forcing the later to increase their rice imports. The Philippines is already the world’s largest importer of the grain.

As the year progresses, the United States should expect above-average rainfall in the southwestern and south-central states, and Florida, and below-average precipitation in the Great Lakes and Pacific Northwest regions.

The “good” news – at least for residents of the Atlantic seaboard, is that if El Nino continues into June, it may hinder the formation of Atlantic hurricanes this year.

The heavy accumulation of snow in an area that rarely sees more than a few flurries caused widespread power outages, in addition to significant damage from falling trees and crashing roofs. As well, the area’s transportation system was paralyzed, and many schools and businesses were forced to close.

So far, there have been an estimated 4,200 claims filed from commercial and residential property owners, and motorists, with the average claim totaling about $6,000.

The snow began falling in the wee hours of last Thursday, February 11th, and didn’t completely taper off until almost 24 hours later. Power outages across the DFW metroplex left thousands of residents without heat or lights for several days.

Representatives of several homeowners and renters insurance companies are urging their customers to make physical inspections of their homes immediately, and call their insurers if anything seems amiss. “Inspections are free,” a State Farm ad reminds television viewers in the Dallas area.

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