Posts Tagged ‘NOAA’

NOAA Says Hurricane Season Will Be MORE Active than Predicted

August 9th, 2011 by Iris | Comments Off | Filed in flood insurance, hurricane insurance, wind insurance

It may seem weird to be talking about hurricanes when so much of the American south and southwest are suffering under drought conditions and horrible heat, but the Atlantic coast is still at risk, especially since the busiest part of the annual Atlantic hurricane season is the period from August to October.

As they do every August, federal storm watchers updated their outlook for the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season last week, increasing the number of expected “named” storms from the initial predictions made back in May.

NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) forecasters are now saying they expect three to five of this year’s storm’s to develop into hurricanes of category 3 or higher, with winds topping 110 miles an hour.

Gerry Bell, Ph.D., the lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center elaborated, saying, “The atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean are primed for high hurricane activity during August through October. Storms through October will form more frequently and become more intense than we’ve seen so far this season.”

The climate factors predicted in May to support an active season include exceptionally warm temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean (actually the third warmest temperatures on record), the possible return of La Niña, and the “tropical tropical multi-decadal signal, which since 1995 has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions, leading to more active seasons.” Also at play is a reduced vertical wind shear and lower air pressure across the tropical Atlantic.

Based on all of this information, the confidence for a more-active-than-normal hurricane season has been revised upwards from May’s 65% to a worrisome 85% this month. As well, the number of predicted named storms has increased from 12-18 in May to 14-19 as of last week, with the expected number of hurricanes now at 7-10, up from 6-10.

What does all this mean to the average coastal homeowner? Don’t be lulled into false security by a season that has been quiet so far; check on your wind and flood insurance coverage before it’s too late.

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NHC Begins Tracking First Storm of the Season – Before Hurricane Season Officially Starts

May 26th, 2010 by Iris | Comments Off | Filed in flood insurance

The official beginning of the 2010 Atlantic season is still a week away, but according to Reuters the The U.S. National Hurricane Center has already begun tracking the first low pressure system of the year, reminding commodities and energy traders to be prepared for the hurricane season, which begins June 1 and ends November 30.

On Sunday, the NHC started tracking the non-tropical low which was then about 475 miles southwest of Bermuda. By Monday morning the storm was producing disorganized rain showers and thunderstorms over a large portion of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.

According to storm trackers, the system has a medium chance (30%) of becoming a subtropical cyclone in the next 48 hours, as it moves north-northwest toward the Gulf of Mexico, and away from Florida, at a slow pace.

The official 2010 hurricane season forecast will be released by NOAA (the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) on Thursday. This forecast is watched by the energy and commodity markets for signs of any potential disruptions to oil and gas installations in the Gulf of Mexico, due to weather during hurricane season.

Even though the official forecast has not yet been made public, many meteorologists are predicting that this year will bring an “unusually destructive” hurricane season, which could significantly impact efforts to clean up BP’s oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

State officials in Florida, Louisiana, and Texas are urging home- and business owners in coastal areas to confirm that adequate flood insurance and hurricane protections are in force before anything happens.

Some meteorologists have already predicted conditions are ripe for an unusually destructive hurricane season, which could also disrupt efforts to clean up BP’s oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

Commodities traders also watch for storms that could damage agriculture crops such as citrus and cotton in Florida and other states along the coast to Texas.

In addition, the path of a storm can affect pricing of insurance-linked securities, which transfer insurance risks associated with natural disasters to capital markets investors.

Read more: http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2010/05/25/110138.htm#ixzz0p61XSa3p

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