Posts Tagged ‘hurricanes’

NOAA Says Hurricane Season Will Be MORE Active than Predicted

August 9th, 2011 by Iris | Comments Off | Filed in flood insurance, hurricane insurance, wind insurance

It may seem weird to be talking about hurricanes when so much of the American south and southwest are suffering under drought conditions and horrible heat, but the Atlantic coast is still at risk, especially since the busiest part of the annual Atlantic hurricane season is the period from August to October.

As they do every August, federal storm watchers updated their outlook for the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season last week, increasing the number of expected “named” storms from the initial predictions made back in May.

NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) forecasters are now saying they expect three to five of this year’s storm’s to develop into hurricanes of category 3 or higher, with winds topping 110 miles an hour.

Gerry Bell, Ph.D., the lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center elaborated, saying, “The atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean are primed for high hurricane activity during August through October. Storms through October will form more frequently and become more intense than we’ve seen so far this season.”

The climate factors predicted in May to support an active season include exceptionally warm temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean (actually the third warmest temperatures on record), the possible return of La Niña, and the “tropical tropical multi-decadal signal, which since 1995 has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions, leading to more active seasons.” Also at play is a reduced vertical wind shear and lower air pressure across the tropical Atlantic.

Based on all of this information, the confidence for a more-active-than-normal hurricane season has been revised upwards from May’s 65% to a worrisome 85% this month. As well, the number of predicted named storms has increased from 12-18 in May to 14-19 as of last week, with the expected number of hurricanes now at 7-10, up from 6-10.

What does all this mean to the average coastal homeowner? Don’t be lulled into false security by a season that has been quiet so far; check on your wind and flood insurance coverage before it’s too late.

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FEMA Stresses Need for Hurricane Response Training

April 27th, 2011 by Iris | Comments Off | Filed in hurricane insurance, insurance news

Earlier this week, Craig Fugate, director of FEMA (the Federal Emergency Management Agency) emphasized the importance of public officials learning how to respond to hurricanes and other powerful storms, and also said that the state of the economy was not an excuse to forgo preparation.

Speaking at the National Hurricane Conference in Atlanta, Fugate said, “As much as we talk about the public, this team is constantly changing. There has been a tremendous turnover. How many of the elected leadership are going to participate — and not just for the photo op?”

He stressed that mayors, governors and others have to participate in hurricane preparedness drills in order to really understand the sorts of decisions they may have to make during this summer’s Atlantic hurricane season, which begins in a bit over a month. He also urged the emergency management community to use social media to keep the public engaged in the process, and stressed that they need to work with private sector responders when handling disasters.

When asked if budget concerns would affect state and local governments’ response to disasters like hurricanes, or the recent spate of tornadoes in the Midwest and South, Fugate was dismissive, saying, “Just because the economy’s horrible doesn’t mean hurricanes stop.”

Also speaking at the conference was National Hurricane Center Director Bill Read, who reviewed last year’s hurricane season, which, he said, had the highest number of the storms without a landfall in the United States.

Among his priorities this year, said Read, are outreach to boost community preparation and public empowerment. His top concern is Haiti, where 1.5 million people are still living in tents, putting them at an even greater risk than ever from a major hurricane.

Read said, “That’s going to be my biggest gut check. I don’t know how many people can be safely dealt with in a hurricane of that magnitude.”

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2010 Hurricane Season, Not Much Landfall, But Still Active

October 7th, 2010 by Iris | Comments Off | Filed in flood insurance, insurance news

Reuters is reporting today that even though there’ve been a lot of hurricanes in the Atlantic this season, the lack of any major landfalls will make most people consider it a quiet year.

Before the season began on June 1st, many hurricane forecasters had predicted a high likelihood that a major hurricane would make landfall on somewhere along the east coast of the United States, but this has not happened, and with less than a month left in the season, and the most active part winding down, the chance of any major impact on the mainland of the United States or any of its “energy interests” in the Gulf of Mexico are even less probable.

Bill Read, director of the U.S. National Hurricane Center told Reuters, “If you just use (U.S.) landfall as a criteria and did not pay attention to the numbers, you’d think this was a really quiet year.” He continued, “A couple of relatively minor impacts and some flooding and that’s what we’d have to show for it.”

Read also said that this year would still be classified as yet another exceptionally busy season, it’s just that the U.S. lucked out.

The closest the U.S. had to a major landfall was Hurricane Earl, the Category 4 storm that hovered about 100 miles off of North Carolina and southern New England in September, Read said, adding, “That’s a relatively narrow escape if you look at it from the global perspective.” He also reminds us that there were a significant number of flood and mudslide deaths in Mexico and Central America due to hurricanes.

In an average season, there are about ten named storms, of which six become hurricanes. This year, there have been fifteen named storms so far, including Otto, which began forming as a subtropical storm over the Western Atlantic yesterday. Otto poses no immediate threat to land.

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August Busiest Month for Hurricanes

August 11th, 2010 by Iris | Comments Off | Filed in flood insurance, homeowners insurance, insurance news

While the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has slightly amended the hurricane outlook it released in May, an above-normal season is still expected. With ocean temperatures at record highs, and the climate phenomenon known as “La Nina” beginning to development, government forecasters maintain that this may be the busiest Atlantic hurricane season since 2005.

The original forecast predicted 14-23 named tropical storms during this hurricane season. Those numbers have been revised to a range of 14-20. The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1st, and runs through November 30th, but the peak period is in high summer and early fall: August through October, during which eight to twelve storms could develop into hurricanes, four-to-six of which could evolve into “major storms” with winds in excess of 111 mph.

Jane Lubchenco said in a statement to the press, “August heralds the start of the most active phase of the Atlantic hurricane season and with the meteorological factors in place, now is the time for everyone living in hurricane prone areas to be prepared.”

Historically during active storm seasons, multiple hurricane strikes are much more likely for both the Gulf Coast and the East Coast in the U.S., but the Caribbean also sees a marked increase in the number and severity of storms during active seasons. This could mean bad news for Haiti, where there are roughly 1.6 million people still living under tarps and in tents, seven months after a disastrous earthquake crumbled its capital.

So far this season, three named storms have developed. Hurricane Alex made landfall in northern Mexico on June 30th, and tropical storm Bonnie caused some trouble for oil company crews working in the Gulf of Mexico in July. Last Thursday, tropical storm Colin regenerated, with winds of 45 mph over the open Atlantic, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami, FL. A tropical storm warning was issued for Bermuda.

According to Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center in Washington, the May outlook, which called for eight to 14 hurricanes, with possibly three to seven major hurricanes, reflected a more active early summer than we actually had. Bell also said that the update is based on indications that a high-activity era which began in 1995 is continuing.

“The atmospheric and oceanic conditions now in place are very conducive to hurricane formation, as we had predicted in May,” he said.

A Pacific Ocean phenomenon called La Nina developed in July, reducing wind shear in the Atlantic and making it easier for storms to take shape. As well, ocean temperatures are exceptionally high, and the warmest since 2005 when Hurricanes Katrina and Rita tore apart the very part of the Gulf of Mexico now dealing with BP’s oil spill. According to Bell, during above-normal seasons it’s typical for three named storms to spin into the Gulf between August and November. A storm’s individual strength and its path across the water would determine whether there would be any impact on remaining oil from the explosion last April.

Tropical storms are named when sustained wind speeds reach 39 mph (62 kph). They become hurricanes when sustained winds reach 74 mph (119 kph). Major hurricanes blow at 111 mph (178 kph) or more. The strongest hurricanes are labeled Category 5, with winds greater than 155 mph (250 kph).

Last week, researchers from Colorado State University researchers said they also expected this year’s season to be more active than average, forecasting 10 hurricanes, five of them major.

Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.

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Storm Surge Warnings Might Be Added to Weather Alerts

April 2nd, 2010 by Iris | Comments Off | Filed in flood insurance

We’re still a couple of months away from the start of the Atlantic hurricane season, but that’s not too soon for the the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to be considering a new addition to their already vast collection of watches and warnings typically issued during hurricane seasons.

Specifically, NHC officials pitched the idea of a storm-surge warning to the group of first responders, meteorologists and emergency managers who attended the recent 2010 National Hurricane Conference held in Orlando, Florida, but no actual decision will be made for another two or three years.

What’s the reasoning behind a storm surge warning? It’s because there are places that aren’t necessarily inside the cones of hurricanes but are still susceptible to storm surge, and would benefit from such warnings, according to Bill Read, director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Read explained, “In a storm like Hurricane Ike, surges are far more dangerous than wind in a particular location. We’re thinking we need to have that warning.”

Hurricane Ike, which struck in 2008, damaged 75% of the houses in Galveston, Texas, but also submerged many acres of farmland and ranches in salt water, ruined still more acres of vegetation, and scoured away beaches.

If storm surge warnings are adopted, they will take two or three years to implement because of the technical requirements involved in incorporating surge models into pre-existing tide levels and rainfall runoff information. Two years ago, Read said the NHC was working on a program that could mate a Google application with storm surge data, so that property owners could determine the flooding threat from any category of storm.

With the debate on surge warnings comes the biggest change to the hurricane warning system in several decades: beginning in mid-may, the NHC will begin issuing storm watches and warnings roughly half a day sooner than it used to, so when a storm is approaching land, forecasters will send watches advising tropical storm conditions could be expected in 48 hours, rather than in 36, while warnings will be sent 36 hours ahead, not 24. By the middle of this decade, the NHC expects to be able to issue forecasts seven days out.

The Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1, and despite vulnerable areas in the US, the NHC’s main concern this summer will be Haiti, where over a million people were made homeless by January’s devastating earthquake. Read says that this year, if a storm is heading in that direction, more and earlier briefings will be held, to give residents more time to prepare.

“Most people know we’ve got an impossible situation there,” Read said. “God forbid a major hurricane went across Haiti while we have this many people in a distressed state during the peak of the hurricane season.”

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