According to city manager Rick Clark, flooding in the Four Mile Creek neighborhoods is “uncontrolled,” and recent weather has only shown that more buyouts are needed.

After serious flooding two years ago, the city of Des Moines spent over $1.5 million acquiring, relocating, and demolishing seventeen properties near Four Mile Creek. The money to do so came from a combination of local, state, and federal sources.

Since then, the city has received a grant from the State of Iowa to purchase six more properties, and is awaiting instructions from the state on how to proceed.

City officials are also working for a comprehensive review of Four Mile Creek’s 120-square-mile watershed.

The original forecast predicted 14-23 named tropical storms during this hurricane season. Those numbers have been revised to a range of 14-20. The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1st, and runs through November 30th, but the peak period is in high summer and early fall: August through October, during which eight to twelve storms could develop into hurricanes, four-to-six of which could evolve into “major storms” with winds in excess of 111 mph.

Jane Lubchenco said in a statement to the press, “August heralds the start of the most active phase of the Atlantic hurricane season and with the meteorological factors in place, now is the time for everyone living in hurricane prone areas to be prepared.”

Historically during active storm seasons, multiple hurricane strikes are much more likely for both the Gulf Coast and the East Coast in the U.S., but the Caribbean also sees a marked increase in the number and severity of storms during active seasons. This could mean bad news for Haiti, where there are roughly 1.6 million people still living under tarps and in tents, seven months after a disastrous earthquake crumbled its capital.

So far this season, three named storms have developed. Hurricane Alex made landfall in northern Mexico on June 30th, and tropical storm Bonnie caused some trouble for oil company crews working in the Gulf of Mexico in July. Last Thursday, tropical storm Colin regenerated, with winds of 45 mph over the open Atlantic, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami, FL. A tropical storm warning was issued for Bermuda.

According to Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center in Washington, the May outlook, which called for eight to 14 hurricanes, with possibly three to seven major hurricanes, reflected a more active early summer than we actually had. Bell also said that the update is based on indications that a high-activity era which began in 1995 is continuing.

“The atmospheric and oceanic conditions now in place are very conducive to hurricane formation, as we had predicted in May,” he said.

A Pacific Ocean phenomenon called La Nina developed in July, reducing wind shear in the Atlantic and making it easier for storms to take shape. As well, ocean temperatures are exceptionally high, and the warmest since 2005 when Hurricanes Katrina and Rita tore apart the very part of the Gulf of Mexico now dealing with BP’s oil spill. According to Bell, during above-normal seasons it’s typical for three named storms to spin into the Gulf between August and November. A storm’s individual strength and its path across the water would determine whether there would be any impact on remaining oil from the explosion last April.

Tropical storms are named when sustained wind speeds reach 39 mph (62 kph). They become hurricanes when sustained winds reach 74 mph (119 kph). Major hurricanes blow at 111 mph (178 kph) or more. The strongest hurricanes are labeled Category 5, with winds greater than 155 mph (250 kph).

Last week, researchers from Colorado State University researchers said they also expected this year’s season to be more active than average, forecasting 10 hurricanes, five of them major.

Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.

In the press release, Jill C. Malmstadt, one of the authors of “Risk of Strong Hurricane Winds to Florida Cities” (November 2009, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology), said, “Not unexpectedly, we found that the extreme wind risk from hurricanes varies across the state. Areas in the northeast, such as Jacksonville and in the Big Bend between Tampa and Tallahassee, have longer periods between occurrences of a given strong wind speed compared to areas such as Miami and Pensacola. That’s also where we found the highest annual threats of a catastrophic hurricane event.”

The researchers concluded that every 12 years on average Miami will experience winds of 112 mph or stronger, the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane. The last time winds of that magnitude hit the city was Hurricane Wilma in 2005, so, by this study, the 2017 hurricane season will be a severe one for residents. Folks in Tallahassee, on the other hand, the least vulnerable locale in Florida, get winds of that velocity once every 500 years. Is it difficult to figure out how that’s going to effect insurance rates when plugged into existing risk calculations?

While the knee jerk response of most insurance customers is to react negatively to increased rates based on “perceived” risk, proven risk might make the medicine go down a little more easily. Of course, the model will have to be in use over a period of time before it gains acceptance in either meteorological or insurance circles, but to a large extent the basis of fair rates is better science. Customers have complained for years that risk assessment for insurance is a highly subjective and often influenced by prejudice and stereotype. Bottom line: better tools, better, more verifiable rates — especially in an area as prone to storm damage as Florida.

According to government officials, only eighteen cities and counties in Iowa have joined the NFIP since the floods that soaked their state two years ago. Why not? Because of paperwork and money.

Specifically, local officials say, the participating communities are required to adopt and enforce flood plain management ordinances in order to reduce damage from future floods, and that process either takes too much red tape, or would increase insurance costs to home- and business owners.

Unless their communities agree to participate in the national flood insurance program, residents of those communities cannot purchase federal flood insurance. This year, 113 Iowa cities and counties within flood hazard areas have chosen not to participate, down from 131 non-participating communities in 2008.

The program has been suspended since May 31st, making the issue of new policies impossible. In this extension, reauthorization provisions have been embedded into legislation relating to jobless benefits and tax breaks – legislation that the Senate has already voted down twice.

The newly-passed House bill, HR 5569, was sponsored by Representative Maxine Waters (D – CA) and Representative Walter Jones (R – NC) but the Senate must still act upon it.

The Independent Insurance Agents and Brokers of America (Big “I”) commended the House for its vote and urged the Senate to act quickly.

Charles Symington, Big “I” senior vice president of government affairs, told the press. “The program has been expired since May 31, putting millions of consumers at risk from the economic dangers of flood right in the midst of the hurricane season and storm season in the Midwest. The expiration has also threatened to wreak havoc in both the real estate and insurance markets during a period of great economic difficulty. It is vital that the program be extended and we therefore urge the Senate to act on this bill without delay.”

Since the end of May, the program has not been able to issue new or renewal flood policies, though it has still been paying claims for existing policy holders. This is the fourth time in the last year that the program has been interrupted because Congress failed to reauthorize it for an extended length of time.

The Big “I” and other industry groups hope that Congress will move beyond temporary extensions and pass legislation that authorizes the program for five years and makes certain reforms to it.

Most mainline commercial insurance companies don’t offer flood insurance, which must be purchased through the National Flood Insurance Program, a division of FEMA, but those people who don’t have mortgages which require flood coverage may not be aware they need it.

Jerry Johns, president of Southwestern Insurance Information Service told reporters, “What’s sad is to see someone who thinks their homeowners’ insurance covers flooding – and a lot of people do – to realize that everything has been destroyed and they have to pay to replace it.” However, he explained, the average auto insurance policy that includes comprehensive coverage will pay for flood damage to vehicles, so motorists with flood-damaged cars would be well advised to file claims sooner rather than later.

Kim Holland, Oklahoma’s Insurance Commissioner, declared an emergency in May, after two different storm systems caused damaging wind, hail, and tornadoes. The move was designed to make it easier for out-of-state insurance adjusters to obtain licenses. The Insurance Department issued roughly 2,000 such licenses last month, including 500 that were temporary, expiring in 90 days, said spokesperson Jennie Kleese.

Holland estimated that the May storms caused about $1 billion in insured damage.

Johns, who is based in Houston, TX , said that Oklahoma has certainly had its share of catastrophes this spring. He said, “The only thing you don’t have are hurricanes but don’t rule that out.”

Comprised of officials from both sides of the river, the Metro Flood Study Work Group had voted three months ago to endorse a 35,000 cubic feet-per-second channel on the North Dakota side of the river. Originally, that $1.46 billion project was expected to provide flood protection to a 500-year flood level, but more recent estimates from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers show different data, with the possibility of higher river levels.

Aaron Snyder, the Corps project manager, explained to the group that a larger diversion study could take up to two months, and would “pretty much guarantee” that the group would miss the December deadline for Congress, but added that it may be possible to increase the scale of the project after Washington has granted its approval. “Right now, it’s important to move forward. There’s options to go bigger later,” Snyder said.

The last two springs have seen areas residents fighting massive floods, including 2009’s record-setting crest which damaged hundreds of homes and forced thousands of people to evacuate. Last summer, Fargo, ND voters indicated their support of the flood protection project, by voting for a half-cent sales tax increase, to offset the local share of the project’s cost. The preliminary estimates had the federal government paying $886 million, which left the other $626 million the responsibility of local authorities.

The corps is under an extremely tight timetable because Congress is expected to approve a major water projects bill – the first since 2002 – next year.

The corps is under a tight timetable because Congress is expected to approve a major water projects bill next year, the first since 2002.

“We want to stay on task and stay on time,” said Kevin Mahoney, Fargo’s deputy mayor.

Snyder said that the group had planned a discussion of the feasibility study and environmental impact statement on the North Dakota project, but the report was been delayed a week. The report in question will outline the project’s scope. Using current estimates, the plan as it stands now would provide flood protection “in excess of 100 years,” he explained. City and county leaders, however, are adamant about wanting 500-year protection.

“Things can always change,” Snyder said. “The U.S. Congress can always authorize something different as we move forward.”

It is not known if this project will impact flood insurance requirements for communities along the river.

On Sunday, the NHC started tracking the non-tropical low which was then about 475 miles southwest of Bermuda. By Monday morning the storm was producing disorganized rain showers and thunderstorms over a large portion of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.

According to storm trackers, the system has a medium chance (30%) of becoming a subtropical cyclone in the next 48 hours, as it moves north-northwest toward the Gulf of Mexico, and away from Florida, at a slow pace.

The official 2010 hurricane season forecast will be released by NOAA (the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) on Thursday. This forecast is watched by the energy and commodity markets for signs of any potential disruptions to oil and gas installations in the Gulf of Mexico, due to weather during hurricane season.

Even though the official forecast has not yet been made public, many meteorologists are predicting that this year will bring an “unusually destructive” hurricane season, which could significantly impact efforts to clean up BP’s oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

State officials in Florida, Louisiana, and Texas are urging home- and business owners in coastal areas to confirm that adequate flood insurance and hurricane protections are in force before anything happens.

Some meteorologists have already predicted conditions are ripe for an unusually destructive hurricane season, which could also disrupt efforts to clean up BP’s oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

Commodities traders also watch for storms that could damage agriculture crops such as citrus and cotton in Florida and other states along the coast to Texas.

In addition, the path of a storm can affect pricing of insurance-linked securities, which transfer insurance risks associated with natural disasters to capital markets investors.

Read more: http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2010/05/25/110138.htm#ixzz0p61XSa3p

Senator Dick Durbin of Illinois said recently that the Federal Emergency Management Agency(FEMA)’s decision to offer lower rates on properties affected by changes to the flood maps significantly reduces the financial impact to property owners in southwestern Illinois and other affected regions, at least for now.

FEMA has agreed that up to two years’ eligibility for the National Flood Insurance Program’s lowest-priced option, the Preferred Risk Policy, will be offered to small businesses and homeowners on any land that falls into the newly designated special flood hazard areas. Once the redrawn maps take effect – either this fall or early next year – those rates will be available.

The savings provided by the special rates are not insignificant. The yearly premium for a homeowner under the preferred risk program is around $300, as opposed to the $1,200 – $1,500 premium they might pay otherwise, said Les Sterman, an administrator of a flood-protection district that includes three Illinois counties near St. Louis.

Sterman said that the lower premiums, “… are quite reasonable, and everyone in the area should buy insurance at those rates. It’s considerable relief to a point, obviously.” He also warned that larger companies will still have to shop the open market for their coverage, at a price he estimates to be about $30 million/year in his region.

In a statement to the press, Senator Durbin said that FEMA’s decision was “…only a temporary solution…” ensuring that homeowners “…will at least be financially protected at an affordable price in the event of a flood.” He said that the long-term solution is “… to bring the levees into a good state of repair.”

For the last six years, FEMA has been working on modernizing their maps, including digitizing levee locations in order for crisis handlers to have instant, electronic access to information about man-made hazards. In the aftermath of 2005’s Hurricane Katrina – and the resultant sharp criticism of FEMA and the Army Corps of Engineers with regard to the levees in New Orleans – the organization grew bolder, offering a lesson about getting serious in fixing the levees.

Currently, FEMA is assessing whether levees can handle a baseline 100-year flood – that’s an inundation so large that there’s only a 1 percent chance of such a flood in any given year. This scenario is FEMA’s threshold for classifying an area as “high risk.”

The agency’s effort has caused angst in many of the country’s levee-protected areas, including Sterman’s district, where there are 64 miles of post WWII levees that were built to weather a 500-year flood – one with a .02 percent likelihood of happening in any given year.

The Army Corps of Engineers, however, believes the Mississippi River defenses in Illinois require hundreds of millions of dollars in repairs and fixes in order to meet FEMA’s standards before the new maps are released and show the levees to be functionally useless, and that’s money and time the agencies in charge of levee management simply don’t have, and such a downgrade would force those homeowners in the region who have federally-backed mortgages to buy flood insurance, even if they’ve never been flooded before.

FEMA’s authority to require the insurance comes from the 42-year-old National Flood Insurance Program that Congress enacted as a result of the public’s inability to get privately backed insurance for flood losses.